Future Case

Crossmedia, Social, Mobile, Business Modeling, Marketing, Research and insights

Posts Tagged ‘2011


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Normally, I’m not really that much into statistics but today, as I stumbled upon my old post of 2 January 2011 ‘More than 7 trillion SMS messages will be sent in 2011’, I decide to check if that is actually the case. So, trying to find any information on the issue, I ran into these stats that are pretty nice, at least for me. Please don’t bug me with any remarks on reliability in general and the stats in particular. They are just indicators, not religion.

Here we go (source: Mobithinking.com) .

Top regions for penetration of 3G handsets according to Ovum. Looks like we’re all be having a smartphone by 2014. Mind you, that’s in two years. We’ll see. According to Morgan Stanley, as quoted in The Washington Post: “[Morgan Stanley’s] Internet analyst said she expects smartphone sales will surpass PC and laptop sales in 2012, with more than 450 million units sold”. She said this about a year ago and up to date, I have not found any reliable stats. Let’s just say that there is probably some truth in those words.

In this little darling, KPI’s are, of course, Key Performance Indicators. Mobile Operators like to talk in terms of subscribers, total revenues, monthly ARPU (average return per user), and monthly churn (In a general context, churn is a synonym for agitation or turnover).
Now, let’s see what the market will look like. CAGR is the Compound General Growth Rate is a business and investing specific term for the smoothed annualized gain of an investment over a given time period. (Wikipedia)

Next one. Who is the global leader? (No data available for 2011 yet).

Who said Nokia is dead? (By the way, have you seen my Nokia Lumia 800 yet? It is highly recommended).

So there we have it. One detail for me to remember is that the global market does not reflect the Dutch market. If we want to talk mobile business, including that part of the Creative Industry that covers the domain, let us look at the world. There is a lot of great business out here.

Last detail: how many sms messages were sent in 2011? If you know the answer, please comment on this post.

Written by Kees Winkel

December 28, 2011 at 10:27

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It’s A Facebook World … Other Social Networks Just Live In It

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By Robin Wauters for Tech Crunch

Twice a year (in June and in December), Vincenzo Cosenza creates a “world map of social networks”, showing the dominant social networks by country, based on traffic data gathered from Alexa and Google Trends for Websites.

In June 2009, Facebook was already quite big, and at the end of that year its accelerating growthbecame even more apparent. By December 2010, the map colored bluer than ever.

The trend shows no signs of stopping this year. How long until it turns all blue?

You can see an animated version of the different maps here. Pay close attention to how many social networks made it to the map in June 2009 compared to June 2011. From 17 to 9.

Facebook is now the ‘leader’ in 119 out of 134 countries Cosenza has analyzed (he added Ethiopia and Tanzania this time around). Since the last update of the world map, Facebook has conquered countries like Syria and Iran, despite struggles against government censorship.

According to data from Facebook’s Ads Platform, Europe is now the largest continent on the network with more than 205 million users (out of roughly 700 million in total).

Cosenza posits that The Netherlands and Brazil will be the next countries to “surrender” to Facebook’s steamroll (it’s already happening, in fact).

Meanwhile in Russia, Odnoklassniki seems to be putting on a good fight against VKontakte.

Also worth noting: Twitter and LinkedIn appear to be on the rise in the United States, Canada Australia and big parts of Europe (UK, France and Germany in particular).

Interestingly, Inside Facebook just reported on apparent big traffic drops for Facebook in North America. On a global level, however, Facebook is drawing more visitors than ever.

Written by Kees Winkel

July 9, 2011 at 15:12

Land line down, mobile up

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With KPN being the #1 mobile provider in the Netherlands (market share approx. 40%) and T-Mobile and Vodafone running it up with both and approx. 25 – 30%, the Dutch mobile market has finally swapped from steady lines to mobile, says Opta in its ‘Marktmonitor’, published yesterday. The facts and fugures tell a solid growth story of one of the key elements of Dutch mobile life; we are now making more phone calls with our cell phones than with our formerly bakelite, mounted to the wall, land line telephones we need to go to once belling instead of searching our trouser pockets for an ultimate small device one may also use as a phone; our mobile, handy, cell, what ever you want to call it.

Opta, as you may know is Holland’s telephone data transmission watchdog and consumer-provider moralist and is thus being regarded reliable. So one may assume that the marktmonitor is correct and scientifically validated. But even if the measuring would have been insecure, the differences between land line and mobile ‘calling the girl that I’m late’ is significant enough to believe that it is true. So, why am I so excited about this fact?

Well, way back in 1996 when running a small ad agency in the wonderful city of Maastricht, I was a member of De Maatschappij voor Handel en Nijverheid, an ancient old boys network doing their get together lunches at the renowned  Hotel Prinses Juliana (two Michelin stars at the time) in Valkenburg. At a certain lunch, Mr. John de Wit (check out his statements on subscriptions in 1996; amazing) of a company called Libertel (now known as Vodafone) enlightened the audience (and me in particular) over his vision that not long from now everybody will be telephoning mobily instead of land-lined. We all thought the guy was a fruit cake.

Dear John. I would like to apologize for my youthful and arrogant misbelieves, way back in the nineties. I have to admit, you were right from the start. And never again will I make the same mistake of having an opinion about something that touches me but of which I have no clue to even remotely suggest that I have an opinion; I shall shut up in cases of not knowing (yet).

Happy Easter everyone.

Written by Kees Winkel

April 21, 2011 at 14:36

2011 Mumbling away (just for once)

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I’ve got a couple of things I would like to share with you. First of all: happy New Year! Since it is the 6th, this is still allowed in our culture and as our website enjoys an increasing number of viewers, I consider this my last best whishes for 2011 to all.

Secondly I would like to thank everybody who has given me strength over the last five and a half months. I am recovering rapidly and look forward to pick up the pieces again fully by the 1st of February.

Number three. I found a little something regarding who was suing whom for patent infringement in the mobile landscape by the end of last year.

As the writer of that article points out, the chart was based on bad data but still gives a good depiction of how companies can lame others (and themselves) in terms of innovation. Read the whole story at Cult of Mac. Isn’t it strange to see that Nokia is sort of leading the pack?

Number four. w3schools.com has published some OS statistics. Most popular OS platform in 2010 is Windows XP. For those who say huh? These OS’s are for desk tops, laptops, notebooks but not smart phones.

And according to an article in Wikipedia, the most used mobile OS is Symbian with a dazzling 36.6% global market share in Q3 2010.

Number five. Geek.com announced back in November 2010: The Symbian Foundation is going on life-support and Symbian OS will be the next to die. For those who are not really into mobile, Symbian was at one time the most prestigious operating system in the world. Hence, nowadays Android is the apparent new runner up in OS’s.

Conclusion. With Nokia leading the Symbian movement that once started as an (more or less) ideological enterprise an Symbian loosing ground, why should it bother to sue on patents. Suing costs money. A lot of money. Anyway. You may also take a closer look and try to figure out why ‘who is suing who’. It may explain a lot about where we, as simple and ignorant consumers, are heading in the mobile world. I bet 2011 will show us some pretty nice new directions.

Written by Kees Winkel

January 6, 2011 at 20:29

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